DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/09 10:58
Soybeans Sharply Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Mixed
Corn is flat to 1 cent higher, soybeans are 11 to 13 cents higher and wheat
is 2 cents lower to 3 cents higher.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 55. The dollar index is 10
lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are narrowly mixed with crude
$0.10 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mostly higher
with gold up $1.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed with trade working sideways and unable to grasp
spillover support from soybeans so far. Ethanol margins have remained steady
with corn and ethanol futures sideways and unleaded at the upper end of the
range overall. Basis has held up well with some strength showing up at
processors again. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 481,097 metric tons,
and harvest is expected to be around 93% complete. On the March contract,
support is the lower Bollinger band at $3.73, which we have held just above,
with resistance the 20-day at $3.80.
Soybeans are 11 to 13 cents higher with support from short-covering and
positive trade reports spurring buying just before the day session. Meal is
$1.00 to $2.00 higher, and oil was 45 to 55 points higher. The real remains
cheap vs. the dollar with Brazilian weather still in good shape. Argentina
weather is more mixed and coming off a dry week. Bean basis has moved to a more
sideways trend short term with the futures rally likely to soften basis in some
areas this week. Weekly export inspections remained solid at 1.327 million
metric tons. January chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.63, which
we are finally pulling away from. Resistance is well above the market at $8.97,
where the 20-day is and we are above at midday. The upper Bollinger band is at
Wheat trade is 3 cents lower to 3 cents higher with Minneapolis leading at
midday with trade back to the lower end of the recent range. The Chicago/KC
March spread is back to 95 cents near the highs. Chicago also holding a 7-cent
premium to Minneapolis, which has narrowed to start the week. The dollar
remains range bound. Export business has been quiet so far this week. The
forecast dries the Plains back out short term, with little change to world
conditions north and south this week. The weekly export inspections were range
bound at 313,810 metric tons. The March KC chart support is the lower Bollinger
band at $4.23, and resistance the 20-day at $4.35.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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