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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/21 10:50

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans lead mixed trade at midday.



By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 260 higher. The dollar 
index is flat. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with 
crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals 
are weaker with gold 2.60 lower.

   CORN

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade chopping around the lower 
end of the range with another day of crop touring, and demand speculation after 
Poet announced the idling of one plant, and reduced run rates at others. 
Weather should continue to remain a short-term non-issue as the crop tour moves 
through Iowa and Illinois today with rains and cooler temps short term. Ethanol 
margins remain poor with the weekly report showing production down 22,000 
barrels per day, and stocks down 561,000 barrels, helping futures to edge a 
couple of cents higher. Basis remains mixed overall with harvest getting 
closer. On the September nearby chart support is likely the $3.59 low with the 
lower Bollinger Band at $3.47 below that with resistance the 10-day at $3.75, 
reflecting the break.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents higher with trade again trying to find some 
buying support at the lower end of the range. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 
30 to 40 points higher. Crush margins remain positive overall, with oil staying 
towards the upper end of the range. Basis remains flat overall. The Brazilian 
ral is trying to firm off the lows again, with local prices an effective 
premium to much of the U.S. The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for 
soybeans as well coming forward. The trade situation remains little changed as 
well. September chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.42, with the 
next round up the 10-day $8.65.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents lower with range bound trade continuing in quiet 
midday action. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 74 after a high of 90 cents 
last week. The corn/HRW spread is narrower, back to 23 cents. Kansas City wheat 
is now back to competitive on the world market trading as well as into feed 
rations. Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter wheat just about 
wrapped up, with Europe progressing as well. The dollar remains near the upper 
end of the range, limiting upside potential. The September Kansas City chart 
support is the new low at 3.80 3/4 with the first resistance the 10-day at 
$3.94.

   

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(CZ)

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